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DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transfer learning of memory kernels for transferable coarse-graining of polymer dynamics

The present work concerns the transferability of coarse-grained (CG) modeling in reproducing the dynamic properties of the reference atomistic systems across a range of parameters. In particular, we focus on implicit-solvent CG modeling of polymer solutions. The CG model is based on the generalized Langevin equation, where the memory kernel plays the critical role in determining the dynamics in all time scales. Thus, we propose methods for transfer learning of memory kernels. The key ingredient of our methods is Gaussian process regression. By integration with the model order reduction via proper orthogonal decomposition and the active learning technique, the transfer learning can be practically efficient and requires minimum training data. Through two example polymer solution systems, we demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed transfer learning methods in the construction of transferable memory kernels. The transferability allows for out-of-sample predictions, even in the extrapolated domain of parameters. Built on the transferable memory kernels, the CG models can reproduce the dynamic properties of polymers in all time scales at different thermodynamic conditions (such as temperature and solvent viscosity) and for different systems with varying concentrations and lengths of polymers.

Ma, Zhan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.

data augmentation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improvements of pre-emptive identification of particle accelerator failures using binary classifiers and dimensionality reduction

In this paper we look at the properties of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Differential Beam Current Monitor (DCM) data and various methods of data transformation to improve pre-emptive detection of machine trips. In this study, the foundation of the approach is the analysis of new underlying data and understanding various properties with the goal of faster classification, higher precision and higher recall with the aim to reduce false positives as low as required. The result of the research presented in this paper are a binary classifier capable of predicting accelerator failures with millisecond classification time, 96% precision, 58% true positive and 0% false positive rate and optimization techniques enabling real-time implementations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Brillouin Sensing with PCA, and PCA-Based Neural Networks for Efficient Temperature Monitoring

This work explores peak estimation techniques in Brillouin Optical Time Domain Analysis (BOTDA), emphasizing both accuracy and efficiency. Euclidean distance measurement method is applied to principal components derived from Brillouin Gain Spectrum data. It offers a major speed advantage being 180 170 times faster than traditional curve fitting methods such as Lorentzian curve fitting, while maintaining similar accuracy. Additionally, a PCA- based neural network model shows significant reduction of peak estimation time compared to Lorentzian fitting. Results show Brillouin frequency shift errors lie under 0.75 MHz in both Euclidean distance-based and neural network-based methods, both of which utilize PCA components. For large data sets and long length fibers, PCA- assisted neural network for peak estimation would be an efficient solution.

Distributed optical fiber sensing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Blueprints for Training Information Bottlenecks for Collider Analyses

Dimensionality reduction is a crucial aspect of data analysis in high energy physics, even if accompanied by information loss. Several methods, including histogram- and kernel-based analyses, are only computationally feasible for low-dimensional data. Furthermore, simulation models used in HEP can often only be validated for low-dimensional data. We provide several blueprints for using machine learning to create low-dimensional data representations (continuous event variables and discrete classification labels) for use in signal discovery and parameter estimation tasks. We also describe how to design the learned representation to facilitate a) searches with unknown model parameters and b) validation of simulation models in data control regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems with Inverter-Based Resources

In this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, the gray-box modeling framework is constructed by encoding prior physical knowledge of the system into a whitebox model and then embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model. Especially, the white-box modeling component is constructed alongside the equivalent network model simplified with Kron reduction. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our graybox modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

Zhang, Junhui↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing foreground mitigation for CMB lensing with combined multifrequency and geometric methods

Here, a key challenge for current and upcoming cosmic microwave background lensing measurements is their sensitivity to biases from extragalactic foregrounds, such as Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signals or cosmic infrared background emission. Several methods have been developed to mitigate these lensing foreground biases, dividing broadly into multifrequency cleaning approaches and modifications to the estimator geometry, but how to optimally combine these methods has not yet been explored in detail. In this paper, we examine which combination of lensing foreground mitigation strategies is best able to reduce the impact of foreground contamination for a Simons Observatory-like experiment while preserving maximal signal-to-noise. Although the optimal combination obtained depends on whether bias reduction or variance reduction is prioritized and on whether polarization data is used, generally, we find that combinations involving both geometric (profile hardening, source hardening, or shear) and multifrequency (symmetric cleaning) methods perform best. For lensing power spectrum measurements from temperature (polarization and temperature), our combined estimator methods are able to reduce the bias below σ/4 or 0.3% (0.1%), a factor of 16 (30) lower than the standard quadratic estimator bias, at a modest signal-to-noise cost of only 18% (12%). In contrast, single-method foreground-mitigation approaches struggle to reduce the bias to a negligible level below σ/2 without incurring a large noise penalty. For upcoming and current experiments, our combined methods therefore represent a promising approach for making lensing measurements with negligible foreground bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Human-in-the-Loop: The Future of Machine Learning in Automated Electron Microscopy

Machine learning (ML) methods are progressively gaining acceptance in the electron microscopy community for de-noising, semantic segmentation, and dimensionality reduction of data post-acquisition. The introduction of the application programming interfaces (APIs) by major instrument manufacturers now allows the deployment of ML workflows in microscopes, not only for data analytics but also for real-time decision-making and feedback for microscope operation. However, the number of use cases for real-time ML remains remarkably small. Furthermore, we discuss some considerations in designing ML-based active experiments and pose that the likely strategy for the next several years will be human-in-the-loop automated experiments (hAE). In this paradigm, the ML learning agent directly controls beam position and image and spectroscopy acquisition functions, and a human operator monitors experiment progression in real and feature space of the system and tunes the policies of the ML agent to steer the experiment toward specific objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Changes in active-site geometry on X-ray photoreduction of a lytic polysaccharide monooxygenase active-site copper and saccharide binding

The recently discovered lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases (LPMOs) are Cu-containing enzymes capable of degrading polysaccharide substrates oxidatively. The generally accepted first step in the LPMO reaction is the reduction of the active-site metal ion from Cu 2+ to Cu + . Here we have used a systematic diffraction data collection method to monitor structural changes in two AA9 LPMOs, one from Lentinus similis (LsAA9_A) and one from Thermoascus aurantiacus (TaAA9_A), as the active-site Cu is photoreduced in the X-ray beam. For LsAA9_A, the protein produced in two different recombinant systems was crystallized to probe the effect of post-translational modifications and different crystallization conditions on the active site and metal photoreduction. We can recommend that crystallographic studies of AA9 LPMOs wishing to address the Cu 2+ form use a total X-ray dose below 3 × 10 4 Gy, while the Cu + form can be attained using 1 × 10 6 Gy. In all cases, we observe the transition from a hexacoordinated Cu site with two solvent-facing ligands to a T-shaped geometry with no exogenous ligands, and a clear increase of the θ 2 parameter and a decrease of the θ 3 parameter by averages of 9.2° and 8.4°, respectively, but also a slight increase in θ T . Thus, the θ 2 and θ 3 parameters are helpful diagnostics for the oxidation state of the metal in a His-brace protein. On binding of cello-oligosaccharides to LsAA9_A, regardless of the production source, the θ T parameter increases, making the Cu site less planar, while the active-site Tyr—Cu distance decreases reproducibly for the Cu 2+ form. Thus, the θ T increase found on copper reduction may bring LsAA9_A closer to an oligosaccharide-bound state and contribute to the observed higher affinity of reduced LsAA9_A for cellulosic substrates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

SnowPac : a multiscale cubic B-spline wavelet compressor for astronomical images

ABSTRACT As more advanced and complex survey telescopes are developed, the size and scale of data being captured grows at increasing rates. Across various domains, data compression through wavelets has enabled the reduction of data size and increase in computation efficiency. In this paper, we provide qualitative and quantitative tests of a new wavelet-based image compression method compared against the current standard for astronomical images. The analysis is improved by making use of state-of-the-art object detection systems to accurately measure the impact of the compression. We find that a combination of lossy wavelet-based methods, efficient quantization, and lossless dictionary compressors can preserve up to 98 per cent of astronomical objects at a 10:1 compression ratio. This significant reduction in file size also preserves astronomical object properties better than existing methods. These methods help further reduce future workloads for image-heavy processing pipelines.

Pulido, Jesus↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decoding the Pair Distribution Function of Uranium in Molten Fluoride Salts from X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy Data by Machine Learning

Thermal properties of actinides in molten salts are linked to the strongly disordered local environment of actinide ions. Here, we illustrate both the limitations of the commonly used fitting method for analysis of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra in molten UF 4 and a possible solution using an "objective neural network - EXAFS" (ONNE) method. ONNE provides both extraction of the pair distribution function, as validated by its application to the EXAFS spectra calculated on molecular dynamics trajectory, and the EXAFS data reconstruction. The ONNE analysis of the molten UF4 has revealed reduction of the first nearest neighbor U-F coordination number, expansion of the U-F bond length and smaller contribution to the second shell compared to its crystalline counterpart. This method is therefore an attractive alternative to conventional EXAFS analysis and molecular dynamics simulations for studies of disordered environment of actinides in molten salts.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying market volume sensitivity to material property modifications in polyhydroxybutyrate: A parametric analysis approach

Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a biodegradable biopolymer, represents a promising alternative to petroleum-based thermoplastics. However, despite consistent market growth, PHB faces persistent commercialization challenges that limit widespread adoption. Existing research has focused predominantly on optimizing PHB production processes, leaving a critical gap in understanding which material property modifications would most effectively enhance market competitiveness. This study addresses this gap by systematically analyzing the relationship between polymer material properties and market performance using U.S. market data from 2008 to 2021 for 21 thermoplastic polymers across 19 material properties. We employed principal component regression to identify property modifications that could maximize market volume while reducing CO 2 emissions. Our parametric analysis revealed that two specific material properties – Hardness Shore A and Sheet Extrusion Temperature – significantly influence PHB marketability across different price points. Market simulations demonstrated that a 10% increase in Hardness Shore A could increase PHB market volume by 431.5 million kg while reducing emissions by 188.7 kg CO 2 . A similar 10% increase to Sheet Extrusion Temperature could yield a 297.5 million kg volume increase and a 99.2 kg CO 2 reduction in emissions. Critically, this approach is agnostic to the specific methods required to achieve these property changes, instead providing material scientists with quantitative, data-driven targets for R&D prioritization. Here, this framework offers a novel methodology for evaluating biopolymer competitiveness and supporting strategic decisions to accelerate PHB market adoption and contribute to decarbonization of the plastics industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining Deep Learning and scatterControl for High-Throughput X-ray CT Based Non-Destructive Characterization of Large-Scale Casted Metallic Components

X-ray computed tomography (XCT) is essential for nondestructive evaluation and quality control of large-scale metal components. XCT imaging, however, faces significant challenges from metal artifacts, particularly those caused by Compton scattering, which degrade image quality and obscure critical details. Hardware-based solutions (e.g. scatterControl) offer advancements by intercepting scattered photons and reducing artifacts, but they can be time-consuming and require additional processing. Here, we propose modifying and leveraging a novel deep learning (DL) framework, Simurgh, to enhance and accelerate scatter correction in XCT. By combining scatterControl with DL-based artifact removal, we demonstrate significant reduction in scan time while producing high-quality reconstructions. Through extensive evaluation on industrial XCT data, we show that our methods reduce scan time by up to more than 10 x while preserving flaw detectability. Quantitative analysis across multiple segmentation techniques confirms that Simurgh-based reconstructions consistently outperform traditional Feldkamp-Davis-Kress, model-based iterative reconstruction, and commercial DL models in both pixel-level and task-specific evaluations, enabling scalable, high-throughput XCT workflows for characterization of large scale components in applications such as casting and metal additive manufacturing.

Complex metal parts↗

DOE OSTI2020

Operator inference for non-intrusive model reduction of systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms

Here in this work we present a non-intrusive model reduction method to learn low-dimensional models of dynamical systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms that are spatially local and that are given in analytic form. In contrast to state-of-the-art model reduction methods that are intrusive and thus require full knowledge of the governing equations and the operators of a full model of the discretized dynamical system, the proposed approach requires only the non-polynomial terms in analytic form and learns the rest of the dynamics from snapshots computed with a potentially black-box full-model solver. The proposed method learns operators for the linear and polynomially nonlinear dynamics via a least-squares problem, where the given non-polynomial terms are incorporated on the right-hand side. The least-squares problem is linear and thus can be solved efficiently in practice. The proposed method is demonstrated on three problems governed by partial differential equations, namely the diffusion–reaction Chafee–Infante model, a tubular reactor model for reactive flows, and a batch-chromatography model that describes a chemical separation process. The numerical results provide evidence that the proposed approach learns reduced models that achieve comparable accuracy as models constructed with state-of-the-art intrusive model reduction methods that require full knowledge of the governing equations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning for nonintrusive model order reduction of the parametric inviscid transonic flow past an airfoil

Fluid flow in the transonic regime finds relevance in aerospace engineering, particularly in the design of commercial air transportation vehicles. Computational fluid dynamics models of transonic flow for aerospace applications are computationally expensive to solve because of the high degrees of freedom as well as the coupled nature of the conservation laws. While these issues pose a bottleneck for the use of such models in aerospace design, computational costs can be significantly minimized by constructing special, structure-preserving surrogate models called reduced-order models. In this work, we propose a machine learning method to construct reduced-order models via deep neural networks and we demonstrate its ability to preserve accuracy with a significantly lower computational cost. In addition, our machine learning methodology is physics-informed and constrained through the utilization of an interpretable encoding by way of proper orthogonal decomposition. Application to the inviscid transonic flow past the RAE2822 airfoil under varying freestream Mach numbers and angles of attack, as well as airfoil shape parameters with a deforming mesh, shows that the proposed approach adapts to high-dimensional parameter variation well. Notably, the proposed framework precludes the knowledge of numerical operators utilized in the data generation phase, thereby demonstrating its potential utility in the fast exploration of design space for diverse engineering applications. Comparison against a projection-based nonintrusive model order reduction method demonstrates that the proposed approach produces comparable accuracy and yet is orders of magnitude computationally cheap to evaluate, despite being agnostic to the physics of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Source-encoded waveform inversion in the Northern Hemisphere

SUMMARY We use source-encoded waveform inversion to image Earth’s Northern Hemisphere. The encoding method is based on measurements of Laplace coefficients of stationary wavefields. By assigning to each event a unique frequency, we compute Fréchet derivatives for all events simultaneously based on one ‘super’ forward and one ‘super’ adjoint simulation for a small fraction of the computational cost of classical waveform inversion with the same data set. No cross-talk noise is introduced in the process, and the method does not require all events to be recorded by all stations. Starting from global model GLAD_M25, we performed 100 conjugate gradient iterations using a data set consisting of 786 earthquakes recorded by 9846 stations. Synthetic inversion tests show that we achieve good convergence based on this data set, and we see a consistent misfit reduction during the inversion. The new model, named SE100, has much higher spatial resolution than GLAD_M25, revealing details of the Yellowstone and Iceland hotspots, subduction beneath the Western United States and the upper mantle structure beneath the Arctic Ocean.

Cui, Congyue↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Agent Hierarchical Deep Reinforcement Learning for HVAC Control With Flexible DERs

As electricity consumption in commercial and residential buildings continues to rise, reducing energy costs presents an increasing challenge. Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which typically account for 40%-50% of a building's energy use, are prime targets for energy savings. Intelligent control of HVAC temperature through the exploitation of HVAC load flexibility brings significant potential to reduce energy consumption and electricity expenses. The nonlinear models of HVAC systems challenge traditional control methods, while the uncertainty introduced by HVAC load flexibility complicates distributed energy resource (DER) management using conventional optimal dispatch techniques. In response to these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. The lower-level agents focus on balancing comfort and energy conservation, while the upper-level DRL agents optimize the use of DERs to reduce peak demand based on the control outcomes of the HVAC by the lower-level agents. Here, in the upper-level agents, we incorporate a multi-agent structure based on ensemble learning, which acts based on historical and current data without relying on precise load forecasting to address the delayed rewarding issue in DRL. This allows for the effective reduction of energy costs. The proposed method is tested using a real-world microgrid comprising 413 buildings in Southern California, and the results demonstrate that our approach can significantly reduce overall electricity bills while ensuring the comfort of consumers and residents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗