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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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41 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the horizon of bio-naphtha beyond gasoline blend: property characterization and conversion opportunity assessment through technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses

Bio-naphtha, a common by-product of biorefineries, is expected to experience substantial growth in supply due to increasing demands for renewable diesel and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). However, demand for bio-naphtha itself as a gasoline blendstock is limited because of the electrification of light-duty vehicles. This work investigated valorization opportunities for bio-naphtha from catalytic fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathways. These opportunities include producing polymer-grade olefin via steam cracking, SAF via steam cracking followed by olefin oligomerization, and renewable aromatics benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) and hydrogen via catalytic reforming. Process models were developed in Aspen Plus V14 and Aspen HYSYS V14 to calculate the mass and energy balances for each conversion step. Technoeconomic assessment and life-cycle analysis were conducted to evaluate the minimum fuel/product selling price, conversion cost, and life-cycle CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction. Technoeconomic assessment results suggest a minimum fuel/product selling price as low as $1.9/kg of olefins, $6.30/gal of gasoline-equivalent SAF, and $1.2/kg of BTX without any incentives. For all pathways, these prices are dominated by bio-naphtha feedstock costs, which account for at least 76% of the total cost. Compared with petroleum baselines, bio-naphtha-derived SAF, olefins, and BTX can achieve significant CO2e emission reductions from the use of renewable carbon resources. The results of life-cycle analysis and subsequent technoeconomic assessment, incorporating carbon credits, indicate the economic viability of using bio-naphtha for polymer-grade olefin and BTX production, with product costs comparable to market prices.

Xu, Shuang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost and Carbon Intensity Implications of Coprocessing Sustainable Aviation Fuel at Petroleum Refineries

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the aviation industry. Among SAF production pathways, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) stands out for its scalability, supported by abundant feedstock availability and a well-established bioethanol industry. However, significant reductions in SAF carbon intensity (CI) require the use of future feedstocks (e.g., cellulosic) whose adoption is hindered by high capital costs for feedstock processing and ethanol upgrading. Here, we evaluate the financial viability and environmental implications of integrating an ATJ SAF biorefinery within a petroleum refinery, utilizing miscanthus and switchgrass as example feedstocks. Three scenarios are evaluated: standalone (benchmark), colocated, and repurposing (coprocessing SAF within the petroleum refinery). Results show repurposing reduces baseline capital costs by 36% and SAF minimum selling price (MSP) by 12% to 8.14 USD·gal −1 ; the superior performance of repurposing is consistent across both feedstocks. Integration has a limited effect on SAF CI, which remains stable across scenarios, whereas using cellulosic feedstocks reduces CI by over 70% relative to corn, with baseline values of 17.01 g CO 2 e· MJ −1 for miscanthus and 12.23 g CO 2 e·MJ −1 for switchgrass. Global sensitivity analysis reveals MSP declines with greater coprocessing levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Valorization of consolidated bioprocessing residues for bioplastics

This study demonstrates an organic solvent-free processing strategy to valorize consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) residues, from switchgrass and poplar biomass, into functional poly(butylene succinate) (PBS)-based biocomposites using high-shear homogenization (HSH). HSH transformed the switchgrass and poplar CBP residues (CBP-R) into fine, uniformly distributed particles and microfibers. The composites of PBS with homogenized switchgrass residues (H-CBP-R-SG) or homogenized poplar residues (H-CBP-R-P) at a 70/30 weight ratio exhibited improved processability and mechanical integrity, with the Young's modulus for the PBS/H-CBP-R-SG and PBS/H-CBP-R-P nearly doubling to 0.66 ± 0.07 GPa and 0.65 ± 0.04 GPa, respectively, compared to neat PBS (0.36 ± 0.02 GPa). Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) reveals a significant suppression of the tan δ peak magnitude, indicating that HSH-mediated physical activation facilitates stress transfer in composites typical of covalent chemical grafting systems. While the transition to a stiffness-dominated profile reduces ductility, the resulting composites exhibit the dimensional stability and resistance to thermal warping required for high-fidelity FDM 3D printing and injection molding. Beyond material performance, comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) confirmed that diverting CBP residues into composite products can improve the economic viability of the biorefinery without substantially increasing biorefinery global warming potential (GWP). At a 30 wt% blend ratio, incorporating residuals into PBS yielded a minimum selling price for the composite of $\$4.07$ per kg compared to the conventional bioplastic price of $\$5.00$ per kg. This approach aligns with circular bioeconomy principles by converting waste streams into value-added products. Furthermore, this innovative strategy addresses key challenges in bioplastic development, including cost, compatibility, and performance, while simultaneously advancing waste minimization strategies for sustainable manufacturing systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fluidized Bed Gasification For Conversion of Biomass and Waste Materials to Renewable Hydrogen

This project was undertaken in order to study the potential for hydrogen production, at low cost, from mixtures of biomass and municipal solid waste (MSW). This approach allows for the production of hydrogen with a very low fossil carbon burden, while taking advantage of tipping fees (associated with MSW) to improved process economics. The team sourced three primary feedstocks (wood, MSW, and waste plastics) and characterized them comprehensively using established techniques with a long track record in the field of gasification. All three primary feedstocks were highly reactive and lost most of their mass during initial devolatilization. The production of tars, including heavy tars, was quite high, and was most problematic in the case of the MSW and Waste Plastics feedstocks. Little practical difference was identified between the MSW and Waste Plastics materials, and the addition of bed-forming materials (dolomite and brown alumina) to the feedstocks was found to reduce production of tars during devolatilization under thermogravimetric analysis and/or Fischer Assay conditions. A series of four tests in a lab-scale bubbling-fluidized-bed gasifier, at 50 psig of pressure and about 825 C, confirmed these findings. Pellet feedstocks, broken into fragments, were used for these tests, and pellets comprised of 50% MSW and 50% biomass were found to be the best option in terms of fossil carbon burden, economic potential, and gasification characteristics. Tests were then undertaken in a pilot-scale gasifier facility based on the GTI U-Gas fluidized-bed gasification technology. The feedstock handling train of the 20 TPD U-Gas pilot-scale gasifier located in Des Plaines, IL, was operated under simulated gasification conditions, and the 50/50 pellets were found to be very robust and unproblematic. An improved design for the forward end of the feedstock injection screw of the gasifier was developed and installed. The design approach was based on improved passive cooling of the front-most shroud at the end of the screw, since this approach was found in comprehensive modeling studies to be more than sufficient to accomplish the project objectives associated with this phase of the work, while also avoiding thermal gradients that could have caused heat-stress-induced damage to the refractory around the feedstock inlet if an active cooling approach had been applied. Careful technoeconomic analysis (TEA) of two possible 1000 TPD facilities was carried out. The TEA of conversion of MSW with corn stover in one case, and MSW with woody feedstock in the other case, showed that both had the potential to provide hydrogen at about $1/kg (minimum selling price, 2018 dollar basis). Of the two TEA cases, the one that was based on the conversion of wood in the southeastern USA was found to have slightly better economic potential. The other TEA case was based on a real location in Nebraska and called for corn stover feedstock conversion along with MSW. An underserved communities outreach program plan was developed in cooperation with personnel from the Nebraska Public Power District.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of a 600MW Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant using the Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of the proposed 600 MW, 8-hour Craig – Hayden pumped storage hydropower project using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool. The analysis integrates plant technical characteristics, regional grid conditions, and market-based operating assumptions to quantify stacked value streams from energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services, transmission congestion relief, and reliability. Both price taker and price influencer frameworks are applied to examine the impact of market participation and system interactions on lifecycle economic performance using Benefit - Cost Analysis and Multi - Criteria Decision Analysis. The results show that the price taker approach provides higher revenue estimates based on exogenous price signals, while the price influencer approach captures production cost savings, renewable curtailment reduction, and market price formation, yielding more conservative but system-representative outcomes. The study demonstrates the strategic value of long-duration PSH for enhancing operational flexibility, resource adequacy, and grid reliability in a high-renewable Western Interconnection.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calculating a minimum overlap period for successful intercalibration of soil moisture sensors

Abstract Long‐term in situ soil moisture monitoring inevitably requires sensors to be replaced. Ensuing discontinuities in the data record can be mitigated by intercalibration, however it is unclear how long the existing sensor needs to remain alongside the newly installed before there is enough overlapping data to generate a robust intercalibration. We used 154 pairs of established and newly installed sensors within the Marena, Oklahoma, In Situ Sensor Testbed to determine if there is a minimum overlap time that should be considered when planning upcoming replacements. Hourly observations of the existing sensor were linearly calibrated to those of the newly installed sensor with coefficients determined from overlap periods incremented by 30 days until a reference period of 2 years was reached. The resulting bias, root‐mean‐square error, and correlation coefficient for sensor pairs indicate that a minimum of 6 to 9 months of overlapping data are required to generate a successful intercalibration. Extending that to a full year before decommissioning the old sensor results in a stable intercalibration with higher confidence.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing room temperature indirect and minimum direct band gaps of h-BN

Abstract Hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) has attracted considerable interest as an ultrawide bandgap (UWBG) semiconductor. Experimental studies focused on the detailed near band-edge structure of h-BN at room temperature are still lacking. We report a direct experimental measurement of the near band-edge structure performed on h-BN quasi-bulk wafers via photocurrent excitation spectroscopy (PES). PES resolved the band-to-band transitions near M- and K-points in the Brillion zone (BZ), from which the room temperature indirect band gap of E g M K ∼6.02 eV, minimum direct bandgap at M-point of E g M = 6.36 eV and next lowest direct energy bandgap at K-point of E g K = 6.56 eV , have been simultaneously determined for the first time experimentally. The measured energy differences between K- and M-points in the conduction band minimum (CBM) and valence band maximum (VBM) are Δ E C M K = 0.54 eV and Δ E V M K = 0.34 eV, respectively, in good agreement with the calculation results. Significantly differing from its III-nitride wurtzite counterparts, in which only electrons and holes in the conduction and valence band extremes at the Γ-point are predominantly involved in the optical and transport processes, the results highlighted that charge carriers associated with both M- and K-valleys control to the optical excitation, recombination and charge transport processes in h-BN.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy-Optimal Vehicle Longitudinal Motion Control via Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and Ultra-Local Model

Longitudinal vehicle motion control is essential for enhancing performance and optimizing a vehicle’s energy usage. However, it remains a challenging task due to the nonlinear and uncertain nature of vehicle dynamics, along with varying driving conditions. This paper presents a novel ultra-local optimal control approach based on Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle (PMP) that circumvents the need for detailed system identification by employing an ultra-local model. The control objective is to minimize the total energy consumption under boundary conditions while ensuring smooth traction force generation. The proposed approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle model in three representative scenarios: (i) nominal driving, (ii) a change in tire road friction coefficient (TRFC) from 0.5 to 0.65 and road slope from 0% to 5% during the maneuver, with target velocity unchanged, and (iii) a change in target velocity from 20 m/s to 0 m/s during the maneuver, while maintaining nominal TRFC and slope conditions. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method delivers robust performance, effectively balancing consumption and tracking accuracy in all tested scenarios.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Smart Charging of Fleet and Personal Electric Vehicles through Joint Vehicle-to-Grid Optimization

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies offer advantages over unmanaged charging (V0G) by enhancing grid stability, reducing fleet operation costs, and supporting integration of variable generation resources. This research develops a day-ahead optimization framework linked with agent-based simulations to evaluate coordinated V2G participation by fleet and personal EVs under 5 energy-pricing settings in Austin, Texas. Three scenarios (V0G, fleet-only V2G, and joint-V2G) are examined, considering real-time price and grid profiles, health-damage costs, and operational constraints for both fleet and personal EVs. Results show how V2G scenarios shift fleet EV charging to mid-day while enabling strategic battery-discharge during evening peaks, mitigating grid stress and lowering EV energy costs. V2G delivers close to 80% energy-cost savings for a 2000-EV fleet in Austin on grid-stressed days, with 55% lower charging pollutant outputs. Joint-V2G amplifies system-level benefits by complementing fleet discharge, but smart-charging equipment costs can offset those benefits.

Electric vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Qualifying LaBr3:Ce+Sr detector performance for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab Using the ELBE Accelerator

A LaBr3:Ce+Sr detector will be used to measure the stopped muon captures at the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. It has been benchmarked in a test beam experiment performed at the ELBE electron accelerator located at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Germany. ELBE’s pulsed bremsstrahlung beam line was set to deliver an average γ -ray energy of between 4–5 MeV. The detector response was mapped to match Mu2e beam conditions, including rates up to 1 Mcps, energy flux, and time structure. A radioactive calibration source was used to mimic the characteristic 1808.7 keV γ -ray, emitted during the atomic muon nuclear capture in the Mu2e aluminum stopping target. The detector energy resolution was measured as a function of the average energy flux: up to 1 TeV/s for 0.34 s, the steady-operation beam-on time and up to 4 TeV/s for 5 ms to get a conservative estimate of the effect of high intensity Mu2e beam fluctuations. The PMT gain variation as a function of the beam spill length and average intensity has been parametrized and corrected for. When a PMT gain correction corresponding to the average beam-spill intensity is applied, the residual effect of beam intensity fluctuations around the average degrades the energy resolution, σ E γ /E γ , at 1808.7 keV from 0.66% to 0.83%.

Huang, Shihua [Purdue U., West Lafayette]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.

24/7↗
DOE OSTI2026

Smart building HVAC control challenge: experience and solutions from the ADRENALIN project

A smart building HVAC control competition crowdsourced and compared algorithms on fair and equal ground using the standardized BOPTEST framework. The competition attracted 138 participants, but only 9% submitted valid solutions for the final stage, highlighting the complexity of advanced HVAC control design. The winning solutions showed significant potential to reduce energy use and cost by shifting demand, without compromising occupant comfort. Across scenarios, thermal energy cost reductions of 36–76% relative to a baseline, were achieved. In peak heat periods, the cost reduction leveraged limited energy use reduction (0–15%), but more significant energy price reduction (34–62%). This shows smart controls' ability to avoid as much as possible consumption during the morning peak hours, when spot prices are tendentially the highest. Hosting the competition has highlighted challenges in creating competitions that both are fair and promotes solutions that are transferable to real life implementation.

BOPTEST↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration Trials of AI/ML Edge+Cloud Suite (CRADA Final Report)

PACE AI and LBNL partnered under this CRADA to test and evaluate the PACE5 edge node prototype, an AI/ML edge and cloud-based suite, at FLEXLAB.The objective of the test was to evaluate the PACE5 edge node prototype's ability to perform demand shed and take to dynamic price signals, and to demonstrate advanced fault detection and microgrid monitoring capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗