Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion

Gazze, Chris; Aghara, Sukesh; Bleeker, Ian; Annadevula, Lohith; Nofal, Ahmad; Joyce, Logan; Porcello, James; Bachner, Katherine; Gomera, Jose

doi:10.2172/1561261

DOE OSTI · 1561261

Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion

Gazze, Chris·Aghara, Sukesh·Bleeker, Ian·Annadevula, Lohith·Nofal, Ahmad·Joyce, Logan·Porcello, James·Bachner, Katherine·Gomera, Jose

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Abstract

The goal of this project is to develop statistical methods and tools that can be used to rigorously calculate achieved DPs on individual material strata and then aggregate these to the facility and state levels. In particular, this project is evaluating the utility of stochastic ("Monte Carlo") methods as a potentially more powerful and flexible option to the analytical solutions traditionally employed by IAEA statisticians.

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98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION IAEA Monte Carlo safeguards stratum

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BibTeX RIS

Gazze, Chris, Aghara, Sukesh, Bleeker, Ian, Annadevula, Lohith, Nofal, Ahmad, Joyce, Logan, Porcello, James, Bachner, Katherine, Gomera, Jose. 2019-08-09. Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion. https://doi.org/10.2172/1561261

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