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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surpassing millisecond coherence in on chip superconducting quantum memories by optimizing materials and circuit design

The performance of superconducting quantum circuits for quantum computing has advanced tremendously in recent decades; however, a comprehensive understanding of relaxation mechanisms does not yet exist. In this work, we utilize a multimode approach to characterizing energy losses in superconducting quantum circuits, with the goals of predicting device performance and improving coherence through materials, process, and circuit design optimization. Using this approach, we measure significant reductions in surface and bulk dielectric losses by employing a tantalum-based materials platform and annealed sapphire substrates. With this knowledge we predict the relaxation times of aluminum- and tantalum-based transmon qubits, and find that they are consistent with experimental results. We additionally optimize device geometry to maximize coherence within a coaxial tunnel architecture, and realize on-chip quantum memories with single-photon Ramsey times of 2.0 – 2.7 ms, limited by their energy relaxation times of 1.0 – 1.4 ms. These results demonstrate an advancement towards a more modular and compact coaxial circuit architecture for bosonic qubits with reproducibly high coherence.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing integrated neutron diffraction and elastoplastic self-consistent crystal plasticity model to quantitatively assess the strengthening mechanism in Al–12.5Ce and Al–12.5Ce–0.4Mg alloys

An integrated in-situ neutron diffraction and elastic plastic self-consistent crystal plasticity (EPSC-CP) modeling scheme is performed on a binary Al–12Ce alloy and a ternary Al–12Ce–0.4Mg alloys. Using this scheme, the constitutive parameters, i.e. elastic constants and slip system parameters of individual phases can be calibrated which can be used in microstructure-based CP models to predict materials performance. From this study, it is shown that the elastic constants of Al 11 Ce 3 intermetallics calculated from density function theory calculation in the literature are rather accurate. When applied to the EPSC-CP model, the lattice strains of both the binary and ternary alloys are correctly predicted as compared with experiments, and large lattice strain differences between Al (100) plane and Al 11 Ce 3 (010) plane are demonstrated. The slip system parameters calibrated by the scheme shows that the addition of 0.4 wt% Mg in the alloy has little influence on the critical resolved shear stress of initial dislocation glide in the Al matrix which caused plastic yield in the material. This can be explained by the very dilute Mg solute content in the Al solid solution, causing large spacing of Al–Mg lattice misfit sites and little impact on resistance of dislocation glide at initial yield. The 0.4 wt% Mg addition, on the other hand, has a large influence on the hardening term in the slip system parameters, indicating those Al–Mg misfit sites do help dislocation accumulation during the deformation. The impact of dilute Mg addition on the Al slip system parameters is also reflected in the flow behavior of the ternary alloy: little impact on the yield stress, but a large impact on working hardening and tensile strength of the materials which is consistent with the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micrometer: Micromechanics transformer for predicting full field mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials

Predicting mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials across scales remains a significant challenge. Traditional computational methods often struggle with complex and multiscale nature of these materials, limiting their effectiveness in real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we introduce Micrometer, a vision transformer based deep learning model designed to predict full field mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials, bridging the gap between computer vision and solid mechanics problems. We show that Micrometer, trained on a large-scale high-resolution dataset of 2D fiber-reinforced composites, can achieve state-of-the-art performance in predicting microscale strain fields across a wide range of material properties and loading conditions. Our model demonstrates accuracy and computational efficiency in applications such as computational homogenization and multiscale modeling, reducing computational time by up to two orders of magnitude compared to conventional numerical solvers while maintaining less than 1 % errors in predicting macroscale stress fields. Furthermore, we showcase Micrometer’s adaptability through transfer learning experiments on new materials with limited data, highlighting its potential to tackle diverse scenarios in computational solid mechanics. These results represent a significant step towards AI-driven innovation in materials science, addressing the limitations of traditional numerical methods and paving the way for more efficient simulations of heterogeneous materials across various industrial applications.

Composite materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

In-Silico Design of Next Generation Cellulose-Derived Packaging Materials (CRADA Final Report)

Developing sustainable solutions for single-use packaging is an important objective to combat the environmental crisis of plastics pollution. Most embodiments of cellulose-based packaging materials, including CellophaneTM, are completely biodegradable in both terrestrial and marine environments. However, petroleum-derived alternatives offer some performance advantages for metrics such as moisture barriers and mechanical properties. This project leverages molecular dynamics simulation to investigate how molecular modifications to cellulose-based polymer assemblies impact their material properties. An important performance criterion for the modified materials was to retain biodegradability; thus, modifications by naturally occurring, biodegradable additives were the focus of this study. Specifically, we developed models with xylan and lignin of varying monomeric compositions into the cellulose matrix. The mechanical properties were investigated by performing stress-strain simulations, and the water barrier and hydrophobicity were investigated by simulating the water contact angle. Our findings indicate that the incorporation of xylan into the cellulose matrix tends to increase the mechanical properties with an optimal loading of ~27 wt%. We also predict that orienting the nanoscale directionality of the xylan chains such that they are perpendicular to the cellulose fibrils will dramatically increase mechanical strength. In contrast, the incorporation of lignin tends to weaken the composite at all loadings investigated. Simulations of water contact angle predicted that coating polymers on the surface of the cellulose assembly creates a more hydrophobic surface than incorporating them throughout the matrix. Of the coatings investigated, lignin resulted in the most hydrophobic surface, followed by pectin and keratin, which both imparted modest increases in hydrophobicity. Future experimental work done by Futamura will focus on designing material prototypes to capitalize on the predictions of performance enhancement obtained from molecular modeling. While substantial progress was made by the simulations performed in this project, there still exists a vast parameter space that we were unable to investigate, including branching, functional group decoration, and degree of polymerization of polymer additives. However, the methods developed in this initial investigation will facilitate more rapid evaluation of the impact of molecular characteristics on the performance of biopolymer composite materials and thereby accelerate future materials discovery efforts in this area.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic Traffic Modeling Using Probe Vehicle Data: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) captures an orderly relationship among traffic flow, density, and speed at the network level. It is a simple yet powerful tool for modeling traffic dynamics in large urban networks with broad application in traffic control and management. However, empirically derived MFDs in urban regions require high-resolution traffic data from the network. Having the network flow and vehicular density estimated at the (granular) census tract level using vehicle probe data, we apply machine learning methods to predict the MFDs across U.S. urban areas and capture the impacts of location-specific input features on the network flow–density relationships at a large scale. The results show that, among the four tested machine learning approaches (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network), XGBoost delivers the best performance in predicting network traffic flow based on vehicular density and location attributes. Using interaction Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial correlation analysis, we examine the factors influencing MFD shapes across different locations. Our empirical findings reveal that across U.S. urban areas, network topology, transportation infrastructure, and land use are primary factors shaping MFD curves, while demand and trip-related factors play a lesser role. Specifically, higher ranking roads, centrality, and development levels correlate positively with network capacity and critical density, whereas negative associations are observed for network connectivity, mixed-use development, and road roughness levels.

Jin, Ling↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Representation Fusion Framework for Decoupling Diagnostic Information in Multimodal Learning

Modern medicine increasingly relies on multimodal data, ranging from clinical notes to imaging and genomics, to guide diagnosis and treatment. However, integrating these heterogeneous data sources in a principled and interpretable manner remains a major challenge. We present MODES (Multi-mOdal Disentangled Embedding Space), a representation fusion framework that explicitly separates shared and modality-specific factors of variation, offering a structured latent space for multimodal information that improves both prediction and interpretability. By leveraging pre-trained unimodal foundation models, MODES mitigates the dependency on extensive paired datasets, crucial in data-scarce clinical settings. We introduce a masking strategy that optimizes representation dimensionality by eliminating low-information dimensions, to achieve compact, information-rich representations. Our framework demonstrates superior performance in predicting diagnoses and phenotypes compared to unimodal and conventional fusion models. MODES also enables robust diagnostic inference in missing data scenarios, offering an opportunity toward interpretable and efficient multimodal diagnostics in personalized healthcare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Approaching hydro-equivalent ignition in laser direct-drive via target design optimization using novel statistical modeling

Laser direct-drive offers significant advantages in terms of target simplicity, improved energy coupling, and large fuel masses over indirect drive. However, performance degradations from hydrodynamic and laser-plasma instabilities seeded and driven by the direct illumination pose limitations on the parameter space available for achieving ignition. In this paper, new design improvements are identified to forge a path forward for a hydro-equivalent ignition demonstration. The first is related to a new formulation of the statistical model (SM) used to accurately predict target performance directly from input parameters such as laser pulse shape and target specifications. This new SM formulation provides direct guidance on target dimensions and laser beam-to-target radius to achieve the highest fusion yield on the OMEGA laser. The second improvement comes from cooling the deuterium–tritium (DT) ice layer below the triple point right before shot time leading to lower DT vapor densities and higher convergence. Guided by these design improvements, a Bayesian optimization algorithm was used to design an implosion that is predicted to closely approach a Lawson triple product that hydrodynamically scales to ignition if equivalent laser–target coupling is achieved at laser energies typical of the National Ignition Facility.

Deuterium↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally Guided and Experimentally Validated Design of Custom Chelators for Critical Mineral Recovery

Selective, high throughput separation of target critical metals from complex environments such as fly ash leachates and mining process streams presents a significant challenge for economical production. Custom chelators and sorbents are an attractive technology for selective metal extraction, however it can be difficult to predict their performance, and significant experimental efforts are often required to develop chelating technologies. Here, we present a computational strategy focused on modelling chelator-metal binding interactions and benchmark these results versus experimental data. A computational pipeline combining forcefield, semiempirical, and meta-GGA methods with a thermodynamic framework optimized for error cancellation has been developed to predict binding energies of chelator complexes towards critical mineral recovery applications. This approach, originally validated on [2.2.2] cryptates binding mono- and divalent cations, demonstrated robust predictive capabilities with an R2 of 0.850 against experimental aqueous binding energies. The workflow includes metadynamics for exploring high-dimensional potential energy surfaces and a cluster-continuum model for accurate yet computationally efficient solvation modeling. Error cancellation between solvation energies of free and chelator-coordinated ions enables faster convergence, even with finite cluster sizes. Initial studies on the cryptates revealed consistent metal-ligand coordination patterns, with systematic variations influenced by ion size and charge, highlighting key structural features linked to binding selectivity. Further studies of a proprietary chelator have resulted in identification of previously unreported selectivity towards economically significant metals, which in-house experiments have confirmed, demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. By applying this methodology to new chelators targeting critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and other strategic metals, we aim to accelerate the discovery of next-generation chelators for efficient recovery, recycling, and separation processes. This computational framework serves as the backbone of a high-throughput design pipeline tailored for sustainable resource utilization and may be applied to a wide range of systems to meet experimental needs.

computational materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of pellet mass thresholds for ELM triggering in low-collisionality, ITER-like discharges

Abstract In ITER, pellets are calculated to require more than 8 times the mass than currently planned to reliably trigger edge-localized modes (ELMs). Unmitigated heat flux impulses from ELMs are intolerable in ITER at full power and current. Therefore, ITER operation relies on multiple approaches to control ELM heat fluxes. One method is pellet ELM pacing to instigate small rapid ELMs with low heat flux. Predicting the performance of pellet pacing is critical for ITER, which is expected to operate in a regime with a low-collisionality, peeling-limited pedestal. However, to trigger ELMs the local pressure increase in the expanding pellet cloud pushes the equilibrium over the ballooning stability limit. In this work, linear and nonlinear M3D-C1 simulations are used to predict pellet mass thresholds in DIII-D discharges and ITER scenarios with peeling-limited pedestals. It is found that the distance of the equilibrium’s operational point from the ballooning branch of the pedestal stability boundary strongly changes thresholds. Linear M3D-C1 simulations find a strong dependence of the pellet mass threshold on the poloidal injection location for ITER’s 15 MA, Q = 10 scenario. The required pellet mass at the planned injection locations is 8 to 17 times larger than currently considered. However, such linear simulations do not include pellet ablation physics or time evolution of density and temperature. A new scheme of 2D nonlinear simulations, coupled with linear stability analysis at various steps throughout the nonlinear time evolution, was developed to include such physics and improve on the linear results. These new nonlinear-to-linear simulations confirm previous findings. This result suggests that pellet ELM triggering in ITER could require pellets much larger than those currently planned, which makes ELM-pacing operationally challenging. On the other hand, fueling pellets injected from the high-field side will likely not unintentionally trigger ELMs in an otherwise ELM-stable plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental investigation of thermal conductivity of high entropy ceramics

In this talk, we will present the experimental investigation of thermal conductivity of high entropy carbides (HEC) and borides (HEB) with different compositions. Thermal conductivity determines the capability of a material to transport thermal energy and is considered as one critical physical property, specially in the energy industry. Due to the presences of disordered cation sublattice, it is expected that thermal conductivity of high entropy ceramics is lower than the counterparts with simpler compositions, but the experimental studies are relatively few. Using laser-based spatial-domain and frequency-domain thermoreflectance technique, we measured thermal conductivity of HECs and HEBs in a temperature range from 77K to 773K. Furthermore, by focusing the laser using an objective lens, we were able to perform the thermal property mapping on samples with the spatial resolution of micrometer. Such measurements could reveal important microstructure information in a rapid and efficient way without using scanning electron microscopy. The high spatial resolution also enables thermal conductivity measurements on ion-irradiated HECs with the damage layer of merely 1.1µm. These measurements can provide valuable information to predict the performances of HECs and HEBs with different compositions and from different manufacturing processes, and in the extreme environments such as nuclear reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Driven Framework for Predicting the Sorting and Screening Performance of an Integrated Biomass Feedstock Preprocessing System

The characteristics of mechanically sorted and screened lignocellulosic biomass, such as the mass contents of corn stover anatomical fractions (leaves, husks, stalks, cobs, etc.), can be used to calculate the intermediate feedstock quality attributes “yield” and “purity” that indicate the conversion efficiency of biocrude. No prior study has investigated the correlations from the characteristics of raw biomass and preprocessing unit operation parameters to those intermediate feedstock quality attributes. This work presents a data-driven framework for assessing and predicting the intermediate feedstock quality attributes in an integrated biomass feedstock preprocessing system. Our study used corn stover as a typical type of herbaceous biomass because of its abundance in the U.S. It began with data acquisition of moisture content, particle size distribution, and anatomical fractions of the materials after each unit operation in the system. The objective of this preprocessing system is to minimize husks and leaves and maximizing cobs and stalks by mechanically separating the materials into three streams via disc screen and air separator. Prototype neural network models were then developed to evaluate the feasibility of predicting process outcomes based on measurable parameters. It is found that incorporating physical constraints into these prediction models significantly enhances the accuracy of the predicted yield and purity against the ground truth data. The experimental data and model predictions indicate that decreasing throughput increases purity, while higher throughput results in lower purity. Finally, an optimization problem was introduced to search optimal combinations of feed material properties and preprocessing unit operation parameters, as the intermediate feedstock quality attributes – yield and purity, appeared to be competing factors. The study also suggests the continual need to improve the data-driven framework’s predictability by incorporating more accurate physical models to describe the dynamics in the preprocessing units such as the air separator.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Establishment of a Vertically Integrated Domestic Manufacturing Process for Production of Substrates Needed for Manufacture of Gas Diffusion Layers

In this project, AvCarb, LLC evaluated the baseline performance metrics of commercial carbon veils and their corresponding Gas Diffusion Layers (GDLs) with the goal of establishing an optimized, vertically integrated production system for wet-laid nonwoven substrates used in gas diffusion media for electrochemical energy storage and conversion devices. Mechanical testing and microstructural characterization were conducted and used to develop a multiscale computational model capable of simulating and predicting the performance of GDLs in fuel cells. Although the project successfully generated foundational transport and modeling data, it was terminated prior to identifying the critical GDL design parameters necessary for full optimization. The program aimed to improve carbon veil fabrication through enhanced fiber dispersion, fiber-fiber adhesion control, and improved web formation, enabling the production of high-quality, uniform substrates. Simulations were intended to guide mixing and solution delivery system design and process conditions, followed by production-scale trials to evaluate fiber dispersion, web uniformity, and mechanical robustness. At full deployment, the proposed production line would have been capable of producing approximately 650,000 m² of carbon veil annually. This capability remains strategically important, as the United States currently lacks a domestic source of wet-laid nonwoven carbon substrates that satisfy the stringent quality requirements for fuel-cell GDLs and electrolyzers representing an ongoing supply-chain vulnerability. Beyond supply-chain benefits, the project established a robust benchmarking dataset for existing commercial carbon veils while advancing next-generation material concepts targeting improved performance and manufacturing consistency.

Olson, Cynthia Lemay↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges, Technological Pathways and Trade-Offs of Perovskite Solar Modules for Long-Term Operation

Perovskite solar modules (PSMs) have emerged as a promising photovoltaic technology due to their high efficiency, low fabrication cost and compatibility with lightweight and flexible applications. However, ensuring long-term reliable performance under real-world conditions remains a critical barrier to commercialization. PSMs degrade through mechanisms that differ substantially from those affecting established technologies such as silicon, particularly under environmental stressors like ultraviolet light, oxygen, temperature cycling and reverse bias. Here we provide an analysis of the degradation pathways specific to perovskite modules and discuss why standard accelerated tests often fail to predict outdoor performance. We conceptualize challenges across material, device and module levels and evaluate strategies to mitigate ion migration, interfacial breakdown and encapsulation failure. By highlighting the need for realistic testing protocols and durable materials, we propose a framework highlighting key challenges, technological pathways and the trade-offs required to extend perovskite module lifetimes towards long-term operation, aiming to guide the development of PSMs capable of a 30-year operational lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗