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Evaluation of the CEAS model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota
The CEAS yield model is based upon multiple regression analysis at the CRD and state levels. For the historical time series, yield is regressed on a set of variables derived from monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation. Technological trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadriatic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-79) demonstrated that biases are small and performance as indicated by the root mean square errors are acceptable for intended application, however, model response for individual years particularly unusual years, is not very reliable and shows some large errors. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple and not costly. It considers scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.
Evaluation of the Williams-type model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota
The Williams-type yield model is based on multiple regression analysis of historial time series data at CRD level pooled to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analysis include USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, soil texture and topographic information, and variables derived from these. Technologic trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadratic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-1979) demonstrate that biases are small and performance based on root mean square appears to be acceptable for the intended AgRISTARS large area applications. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple, and not costly. It consideres scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.
Comparison of CEAS and Williams-type models for spring wheat yields in North Dakota and Minnesota
The CEAS and Williams-type yield models are both based on multiple regression analysis of historical time series data at CRD level. The CEAS model develops a separate relation for each CRD; the Williams-type model pools CRD data to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analyses are USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, and variables derived from these. The Williams-type model also used soil texture and topographic information. Technological trend is represented in both by piecewise linear functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test of each model (1970-1979) demonstrate that the models are very similar in performance in all respects. Both models are about equally objective, adequate, timely, simple, and inexpensive. Both consider scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail. Neither provides a good current measure of modeled yield reliability. The CEAS model is considered very slightly preferable for AgRISTARS applications.
A universal model for estimating wheat yields
A universal wheat yield model applicable to both fall- and spring-planted wheat was developed to show separate and joint effects of weather and culture on yields. Data from state experiment stations in a wide range of climates in the U.S. Great Plains were used to build basic relationships among yields, weather, and culture. The application of the model on a macroclimatic scale in the U.S., the U.S.S.R., and India is discussed along with potential improvements.
A meteorologically-driven yield reduction model for spring and winter wheat
A yield reduction model for spring and winter wheat was developed for large-area crop condition assessment. Reductions are expressed in percentage from a base yield and are calculated on a daily basis. The algorithm contains two integral components: a two-layer soil water budget model and a crop calendar routine. Yield reductions associated with hot, dry winds (Sukhovey) and soil moisture stress are determined. Input variables include evapotranspiration, maximum temperature and precipitation; subsequently crop-stage, available water holding percentage and stress duration are evaluated. No specific base yield is required and may be selected by the user; however, it may be generally characterized as the maximum likely to be produced commercially at a location.
Multi-parameter yield zone model for predicting spectrum crack growth
A phenomenological load interaction model referred to as the Multi-Parameter Yield Zone model is presented which accounts for crack growth retardation caused by previous overloads, acceleration due to current overloads, and underload effects. In the present model, load interaction effects are calculated utilizing a residual stress intensity concept. Crack growth retardation and acceleration are accounted for by decreasing or increasing, respectively, the effective stress ratio used in a modified Forman's (1967) crack growth equation. Results of spectrum crack growth predictions for 2219-T851 aluminum are presented.
A review: Quantitative models for lava flows on Mars
The purpose of this abstract is to review and assess the application of quantitative models (Gratz numerical correlation model, radiative loss model, yield stress model, surface structure model, and kinematic wave model) of lava flows on Mars. These theoretical models were applied to Martian flow data to aid in establishing the composition of the lava or to determine other eruption conditions such as eruption rate or duration.
Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change
Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.
Multi-Parameter Yield Zone Model for Predicting Spectrum Crack Growth
A systematic technique is presented for modeling crack growth load interaction effects due to spectrum loading. The Multi-Parameter Yield Zone (MPYZ) model accounts for crack growth retardation, acceleration, and underload effects. The load interactions are attributed to the residual stress intensity due to the plastic deformation at the crack tip. Fatigue crack growth was predicted and compared with test data for a variety of spectrum loadings.
Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves
Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.
Brazil soybean yield covariance model
A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate soybean yields for the seven soybean-growing states of Brazil. The meteorological data of these seven states were pooled and the years 1975 to 1980 were used to model since there was no technological trend in the yields during these years. Predictor variables were derived from monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature.
Brazil wheat yield covariance model
A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate wheat yields for the wheat growing states of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina in Brazil. The meteorological data of these three states were pooled and the years 1972 to 1979 were used to develop the model since there was no technological trend in the yields during these years. Predictor variables were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature.
Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Results of LACIE integrated drought analysis (Southern U.S. Great Plains drought 1975-76)
The development and intensification of the drought in the United States southern Great Plains was monitored during the initial growing period of the 1975-76 winter wheat crop. Because of the severity of the drought conditions, a drought analysis plan was developed and implemented beginning on March 8, 1976. Sample segments and full-frame imagery were used at 9-day intervals to identify the drought area and quantify the effects on the wheat acreage. Yield model simulations were run to extrapolate the effects of the drought on yield estimates at harvest, assuming 10 and 90 percent of normal rainfall for subsequent months and 30-day forecast. A survey of LANDSAT data for improvement of distribution of rainfall patterns in the drought area was done for April and yield models run for drought affected crop reporting districts. Special aggregations were performed by the Crop Assessment Subsystem on the drought area to evaluate the utility of remote sensing to monitor the effect of the drought on wheat area, yield, and production.
Incorporating Yearly Derived Winter Wheat Maps Into Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Model
Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.
A Hybrid Procedural/Deductive Executive for Autonomous Spacecraft
The New Millennium Remote Agent (NMRA) will be the first AI system to control an actual spacecraft. The spacecraft domain places a strong premium on autonomy and requires dynamic recoveries and robust concurrent execution, all in the presence of tight real-time deadlines, changing goals, scarce resource constraints, and a wide variety of possible failures. To achieve this level of execution robustness, we have integrated a procedural executive based on generic procedures with a deductive model-based executive. A procedural executive provides sophisticated control constructs such as loops, parallel activity, locks, and synchronization which are used for robust schedule execution, hierarchical task decomposition, and routine configuration management. A deductive executive provides algorithms for sophisticated state inference and optimal failure recover), planning. The integrated executive enables designers to code knowledge via a combination of procedures and declarative models, yielding a rich modeling capability suitable to the challenges of real spacecraft control. The interface between the two executives ensures both that recovery sequences are smoothly merged into high-level schedule execution and that a high degree of reactivity is retained to effectively handle additional failures during recovery.
Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Feasibility of assessing crop condition and yield from LANDSAT data
The author has identified the following significant results. Yield modelling for crop production estimation derived a means of predicting the within-a-year yield and the year-to-year variability of yield over some fixed or randomly located unit of area. Preliminary studies indicated that the requirements for interpreting LANDSAT data for yield may be sufficiently similar to those of signature extension that it is feasible to investigate the automated estimation of production. The concept of an advanced yield model consisting of both spectral and meteorological components was endorsed. Rationale for using meteorological parameters originated from known between season and near harvest dynamics in crop environmental-condition-yield relationships.